( b) Same as (a), but now showing the distribution of point total for all matches with a sportsbook point total of 46.

However, the 95% confidence interval of the sample median (2.27-6.38) contained the sportsbook proposition of 6. The median outcome of 4.26 (dashed orange line, computed with kernel density estimation) fell below the sportsbook point spread (dashed blue line). ( a) The distribution of margin of victory for National Football League matches with a consensus sportsbook point spread of s = 6. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Collectively, these findings provide a statistical framework that may be utilized by the betting public to guide decision-making.Ĭopyright: © 2023 Jacek P. The data suggests that, in most cases, a sportsbook bias of only a single point from the true median is sufficient to permit a positive expected profit. It is found that the point spreads and totals proposed by sportsbooks capture 86% and 79% of the variability in the median outcome, respectively. To relate the theory to a real-world betting market, an empirical analysis of over 5000 matches from the National Football League is conducted. Upper and lower bounds on wagering accuracy are derived, and the conditions required for statistical estimators to attain the upper bound are provided. Knowledge of the median outcome is shown to be a sufficient condition for optimal prediction in a given match, but additional quantiles are necessary to optimally select the subset of matches to wager on (i.e., those in which one of the outcomes yields a positive expected profit). Here the key decisions facing the sports bettor are cast in terms of the probability distribution of the outcome variable and the sportsbook's proposition.

Although considerable effort has been previously devoted to the analysis of sportsbook odds setting and public betting trends, the principles governing optimal wagering have received less focus. The recent legalization of sports wagering in many regions of North America has renewed attention on the practice of sports betting.

Sportsbook betting trends